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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA

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379
FXUS66 KSGX 221138
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
438 AM PDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level low over Southern California will maintain a deep
marine layer, abundant cloudiness and spotty drizzle from the
coast to the mountains through Wednesday. The upper low will move
east on Wednesday, allowing some weak ridging aloft ahead of yet
another upper low for the weekend. The marine layer will shrink
slightly after Wednesday, but may increase again into the weekend.
Some warming will occur away from the beaches this week,
especially across the deserts, but daytime highs will remain a bit
below normal most areas into the weekend. A more substantial
warmup is slated for early next week as well as a reduction in
inland cloudiness. At the beaches...a south swell will bring
elevated surf much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The deep marine layer continues unabated with clouds in the
desert facing mountain passes and stratus making it to the
Imperial County line this morning. Onshore gradients are not as
strong as what was observed Monday evening and the gusty winds
over the mountains and deserts have subsided quite a bit.

Not much change in the forecast with the upper low slowly moving
NE today into Western Utah. Still some areas of drizzle and
possibly a few light showers this morning with some very weak
energy rotating around the backside of the upper low this morning.
Weak ridging aloft will develop tonight and continue through
Thursday with slightly warmer conditions away from the coast.
Given the persistent onshore flow still expect a robust marine
layer for coastal and valley areas west of the mountains
throughout the week but with some day to day fluctuations. The
best chance for clearing Wednesday afternoon and Thursday
afternoon for the valleys due to the ridging and SW flow aloft.
Even with the moderation in inland temps for the remainder of the
work week, temperatures will struggle to reach near normal levels.

Another closed upper low will develop Friday and the models are in
better consensus to track the low east across the Central Valley
Friday into Friday night. This will increase the onshore flow and
pressure gradients, providing a deeper marine layer, as well as
the potential for strong winds over the mountains and deserts.
Temperatures will also trend below normal again for Friday and
Saturday.

Early next week more substantial height rises with ridging aloft
should cause the marine layer to retreat to the coast and the
remainder of the region to see a decent warmup Sunday through
Tuesday next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
220900Z...Coast/Valleys/Coastal Mountain Slopes...Low clouds will
prevail west of the mountains and along some mountain slopes with
bases 2000-3500 feet MSL and tops to 5000 feet. Higher terrain
will be obscured at times. Patchy -DZ will occur through 16Z.
Partial clearing between 18-02Z today, but low confidence on
exactly where. Low clouds filling the coastal basin again tonight
with slightly lower cloud layer: 1500-2500 feet MSL with tops to
around 4000 feet.

Mountain Crests/Desert Mountain Slopes/Deserts...Mostly clear and
VFR conditions. Local west winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt will
occur on the desert mountain slopes and through San Gorgonio Pass,
strongest between 00-08Z.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday,
although some gusts over 20 kt are forecast in the outer waters
Friday and Saturday.


&&

.BEACHES...
A long-period swell from 200 degrees and resulting surf on south
facing beaches will peak today through Wednesday before subsiding
slowly Thursday and Friday. Check the beach hazard statement for
all the details.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
 encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for Orange
     County Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Brotherton
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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