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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 232033
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
133 PM PDT Mon May 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Night and morning low clouds and fog will continue at the coast and
into portions of the western valleys through the week. A warming
trend will continue through Thursday, with the most noticeable
warming inland. A trough passing to the north will increase onshore
flow, bringing cooler, breezy conditions late in the week through
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Forecast Highlights:
*Warming trend through Thursday, especially for inland locations.
*Cooler, breezier, with more cloud coverage Friday through the
weekend.

Clouds have been very slow clearing out of the valleys today. As of
1 PM, clouds have mostly cleared to the coast, except in northern
Orange County where clouds are still 10 to 15 miles inland. As a
ridge of high pressure moves east the marine layer will get
shallower. This will keep low clouds more confined to coastal
areas and portions of the western valleys through Thursday. Low
clouds should clear the portions of the western valleys they
reach by late morning or early afternoon each day, with partial
and intermittent clearing at the beaches.

Global ensemble guidance continues to show a warm up through
Thursday, but there remains some spread in just how warm it will get
west of the mountains. The ECMWF ensemble members are showing the
greatest amount of spread for coastal locations and the western
valleys. The ridge of high pressure will be centered over Southern
California by Wednesday, continuing to move east through the end of
the week. Wednesday or Thursday will be the warmest day of the week,
depending on the location. Highs will be in the 70s at the coast,
80s in the inland valleys, 90s in the Inland Empire, mid-90s in the
High Desert, and 102-107 degrees in the low desert.

Cooler, breezier conditions with increased cloud coverage are
expected later in the week as a trough of low pressure passes
through the Pacific Northwest. Winds will be strongest Thursday
night through Sunday in the mountains, deserts, and through passes.
Right now, peak gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected. Gusts could locally
reach up to 55 mph in wind prone locations. Global ensemble cluster
guidance shows increasing uncertainty in the timing and position of
the trough passage and when the incoming ridge will become the
primary influence on our weather late in the weekend into early next
week. That will influence when warmer conditions will return to
Southern California.

&&

.AVIATION...
231955Z...Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds with bases around 1500 feet
MSL and tops to 2200 feet MSL coastal waters and locally inland.
Local vis 3-5 sm in BR/HZ near the coast. Some beaches may remain
intermittently BKN through the afternoon. Clouds will move back
inland after 00Z with bases near 900-1400 feet MSL, with tops
around 2000 feet MSL but only into westernmost valleys by
sunrise Tuesday. Risk of BKN-OVC low clouds tonight at KSAN is
moderate-high, so moderate-high confidence in the low cloud heights
and timing in the KSAN TAF for this evening.

Otherwise...mostly clear with unrestricted vis through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.


&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...Small

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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