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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 130511
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
911 PM PST Mon Nov 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The Santa Ana onslaught will continue through Wednesday over
Southern California, with strong winds along the coastal slopes,
foothills, and passes, and extremely low relative humidity. The
strongest winds will continue to be focused along the coastal
mountain slopes, especially in San Diego County through Tuesday.
Look for a slight decrease in wind on Wednesday, but relative
humidity will remain extremely low through Thursday. Moistening will
begin along the Coast Thursday night and begin to spread inland on
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...Extremely Critical Fire Weather Environment Exists Over
Southern California...

RED FLAG WARNING extended through 5 PM Wednesday coast to the
mountains.

HIGH WIND WARNING through 5 PM Tuesday for coastal mountains slopes,
through/below canyons and passes and some foothill areas.

No forecast changes this evening.

Winds are howling again tonight along the coastal mtn slopes and
foothill areas. Peak gust this evening so far has been Sill Hill in
San Diego County with 86 MPH (windiest spot by far reported of this
event so far). Many offshore, wind-prone spots have NE wind gusts in
the 50 MPH range. The sfc pressure gradient to KSAN is running about
10 MBS from SW NV and is trending more offshore from the lower
deserts. The 00Z Miramar sounding is no surprise with a PW of only
0.12 inch and a layer of strong NE winds between 6500 and 8000 FT
peaking at 34 KTS.

Expect the winds to remain strong all night along the coastal slopes
and through the passes as the pressure gradient maintains or
tightens a bit more. Where the wind drops off to calm, the very dry
air and clear skies will once again allow temperatures in low spots
to plummet into the 30s and 40s.

It will be another very dry and windy day on Tuesday across much of
southwest CA. The offshore winds should peak later tonight or
Tuesday morning, then decrease a bit into Wednesday. Unfortunately
the dangerous combination of very low RH and strong, gusty winds in
some areas will continue a high wildfire threat. For Thursday, winds
will decrease further, but remain offshore with very low relative
humidity. A shallow marine layer may return to coastal areas
Thursday night into Friday morning, but it likely won`t be until the
weekend that marine air will be able affect areas well inland.

From previous discussion...

Any rain in sight?! Global models are showing a pattern change.
Instead of the current pattern of upper troughs moving "inside"
over the Rockies and into the SW states, models show the troughs
coming in from the west/Pacific. This at least opens up an
opportunity for rain to spread into California at some point next
week, but we have very low confidence on location/timing, if it
happens at all.

&&

.AVIATION...
130415Z...NE to E surface winds 20-35 kt and gusts 35 to 50 kt
through/below the passes and canyons and on the coastal mountain
slopes and foothills through 19Z Tue, weakening during the
afternoon. STG-SVR UDDFS and areas of LLWS likely over and SW/W of
the mountains. Otherwise a few high clouds and unrestricted vis
through Tue evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Local east winds with gusts above 20 kt are expected at times
through Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the coast between Carlsbad
and La Jolla and extending up to 30 nm offshore. Otherwise, no
hazardous marine weather is expected through Saturday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are reported at numerous sites inland this
evening. Strong Santa Anas will continue through Tuesday along the
coastal foothills and may make a run into some valleys and perhaps
even to the coast of northern San Diego County mid-morning where 25
to 35 MPH winds with higher gusts are possible for a few hours.
Winds will decrease slightly late Tuesday into Wednesday, but still
will be strong enough (coupled with the very low RH) for Red Flag
conditions much of the day. The combination of strong winds, low
humidity, and very dry fuels could lead to explosive fire growth
from any fire starts. Very low humidity will continue Thursday and
begin to moderate on Friday with much weaker winds.

For the weekend, weak onshore flow will return. This will spread
cooling and higher coastal humidity inland as the marine layer
returns and slowly deepens.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning until 5 PM PST Tuesday for Orange County
     Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino
     County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County
     Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San
     Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa
     Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM PST Wednesday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County
     Mountains-Including The San Jacinto Ranger District Of The
     San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino County
     Mountains-Including The Mountain Top And Front Country
     Ranger Districts Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys  -The Inland Empire-
     San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Inland
     Valleys-San Diego County Mountains-Including The Palomar
     And Descanso Ranger Districts of the Cleveland National
     Forest-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains-
     Including The Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland
     National Forest.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...10/Gregoria
AVIATION/MARINE...SS

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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