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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA

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581
FXUS66 KSGX 222059
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
159 PM PDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will bring warmer weather to the region today.
This will be followed by gentle cooling Sunday through Tuesday as
an upper level trough moves across the Intermountain West with the
tail end moving across the area by Tuesday night. Another ridge
will build along the West Coast behind the trough during the
middle to latter part of next week for more warm, dry weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Cumulus have developed over the mountains, but with little
vertical extent. Will maintain a slight chance of a shower/tstorm
over the mountains through the afternoon, but odds do favor no
precip occurring.

Sunshine dominates the sky across SoCal early this afternoon.
There is patchy stratus mainly from Del Mar to Point Loma. Stratus
will re-develop along the coast and move some 15-20 miles inland
tonight and this will be the trend the next few nights. Patchy fog
will be possible again near the mesas.

The upper level ridge over the far SW U.S. will become displaced
south into Mexico as an upper level trough dives southeast over
the Intermountain West Sunday-Monday. The tail end of the upper
trough will move across Socal Tue night. The result will be
subtle cooling and gustier west-southwest winds along the desert
mountain slopes and through the passes Monday-Tuesday
afternoon/evenings. This will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns then, but Red Flag conditions are not expected.

There may be a period of offshore winds especially Wednesday
morning per ECMWF which shows more of an offshore gradient then,
but even this model doesn`t show any strong winds with the sea
breeze/onshore winds becoming dominant by afternoon.

After the upper trough passes on Tuesday, upper level ridging will
build in from the northwest, become centered over SoCal by
Thursday, then into Arizona-New Mexico by next weekend. An upper
level low will form and cut off over the ocean west of the state.
The atmosphere will continue dry with no rain expected with temps
rising and averaging above normal for the middle to latter part of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
222100Z...Coast/Valleys...Except for patchy stratus along the
beaches, clear skies with mostly unrestricted VIS will occur through
this evening. Stratus will spread up to 20 miles inland late
tonight, with onset at the coast around 07Z. BKN-OVC bases will be
800-1100 ft MSL with tops to 1300 ft MSL. Local vis below 3 miles
will occur in the coastal valleys. Most areas will clear 15Z-17Z Sun.

Mountains...Mostly SCT cumulus clouds at/above 7000 ft MSL will
occur this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly clear with unrestricted VIS
will occur through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is forecast through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gregoria
AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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