San Diego Weather at Mission Trails, CA

391
FXUS66 KSGX 111200
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Near normal temperatures expected this weekend. Thunderstorm chances
over the mountains each afternoon Sunday through the forecast
period. Above average high and low temperatures return early to mid
next week. Coastal flooding will impact beaches Sunday through
Tuesday with evening high tides exceeding 7 feet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...


...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

As of 1 AM, low clouds had started to spread into the western
valleys with areas of high clouds streaming overhead. The presence
of high clouds does not seem to be deterring the development of low
clouds, with low clouds expected to linger into mid-morning in some
locations along the coast.

Highs today will be within 5 degrees of highs Friday, with the
deserts expected to be a few degrees cooler with 3 to 5 degrees of
warming in the Inland Empire and Orange County and minimal change in
San Diego county. Both high and low temperatures are expected to run
above average for the middle of the week which will bring areas of
moderate to major HeatRisk to inland locations. Current forecast has
the heat peaking on Wednesday.

The area of high pressure that was sitting over us over the past few
days will be nudged north and east to the Four Corners region by
Sunday. That will allow for subtropical moisture to make it`s way
into Southern California. This will bring increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms mainly to the mountains each afternoon and
evening this week. Any thunderstorms that develop will be
accompanied by gusty and erratic winds, lightning, and brief, heavy
rainfall. Right now there is a 10-20% chance an isolated storm moves
off the mountains and into the valleys or deserts, with the highest
chances of that occurring being in the High Desert.

For the first half of the week, Monday looks like the most likely
day for more widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop over
the mountains. It looks like by the middle of the week, the high
will shift further east which will limit, but not completely remove
shower and thunderstorm chances. While there is uncertainty in the
upper level pattern for the latter half of next week, about 31
percent of ensemble solutions position the high in a more favorable
position for increased chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains by Thursday with 48 percent of
solutions more favorable by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
111200Z....Coast/Valleys...Locally reduced vis 3-5SM where stratus
nears terrain in the western valleys. There is a 40% chance of IFR
cigs/vis restrictions at KONT 12-15Z. Low clouds with bases 900-1400
ft MSL clearing 16-19Z Saturday, then redeveloping after 03Z Sunday,
with similar bases, and then continue to spread and fill into the
valleys, stretching to around 15-20 miles inland. Otherwise
increasing mid/high clouds at/above 15,000 ft MSL throughout the day.

Mountains/Deserts...Increasing mid/high clouds at/above 15,000 ft
MSL and unrestricted visibility. There is a slight chance of a
shower over the mountains this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Tuesday
     evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County
     Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...Stewey