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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 172025
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
125 PM PDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoonal moisture will increase into Wednesday as an easterly
wave moves across northern Mexico. This will bring increased cloud
cover, humidity, and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The
greatest chance for impactful storms will be far inland both
Wednesday and Thursday. Dry and a little warmer Friday through
the weekend with greater warming possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The marine stratus was doing a better job of sticking to the beaches
early this afternoon, while scattered higher clouds advanced from
the east. At 1 PM PDT...sfc pressure gradients were weak and the
strongest winds were easterly over mts/desert passes with peak gusts
25-30 MPH.

Even though instability and moisture had increased marginally, so
have the winds in the mid-levels. This may be inhibiting the ability
of heated parcels at mountain top to attain much vertical velocity,
hence just a few cumulus over the mts. A slight chance for thunder
continues in the mts this afternoon while some beaches remain mostly
cloudy. Increased dewpoints over the lower deserts and some cloud
cover will keep max temps in check there.

Not much change in the overall fcst pattern over the next few days
as the strong east-west oriented ridge to the north drifts east
through Fri, and then builds westward across NM/AZ next week. The
easterly wave over NW mexico continues west-bound beneath the ridge
through Wed, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms
across AZ/SoCal. As it passes, upper winds turn more SE and then
southerly into the weekend for further drying of the atmosphere.

Thunderstorm chances remain small at any given time due to the
elevated wind speeds in the mid-levels associated with the passing
wave. The best chances continue over the mts and probably later
Wed/Thu, while overall shower chances increase the most west of the
mountains late tonight through Wednesday. Better instability is
forecast for Wed/Thu, but it is unclear whether it will be
sufficient to overcome the strong flow aloft to result in impactful
thunderstorms. Due to the amplified flow aloft, any Flash Flood
threat would likely be the result of anchoring cell development
immediately downwind of higher terrain.

Dry and a bit warmer for the weekend with the marine layer cooling
areas west of the mts, and then further warming still possible next
week. the 12Z operational runs of the global models still lack
consensus regarding the strength and placement of the subtropical
high over the SW, keeping confidence for any excessive heat here
next week questionable. The ECMWF continues with the center well to
the east, while the GFS brings it farther west to a position over
SoCal on Wednesday. The Canadian is even farther SE with the center,
indicating a cooler onshore pattern for the West Coast.

&&

AVIATION... 172030Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of low clouds with bases
of around 1500 ft MSL and tops to 1800 ft MSL will continue along
the coast, with mid and high level cloudiness otherwise. Widespread
stratus will re-develop this evening from 02-05Z and again spread
into the inland valleys with bases of 1200-1500 ft MSL.

Mountains/Deserts...VFR will prevail with SCT-BKN clouds at/above
10000 feet MSL. Isolated shra/tsra through Wed with occasionally
gusty and erratic winds and heavy downpours near tsra with mtn
obscuration psbl. Highest chance of convection will be over the
mountains during the heat of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Sunday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...10
AVIATION/MARINE...JMB

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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