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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA
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581 FXUS66 KSGX 222059 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 159 PM PDT Sat Sep 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will bring warmer weather to the region today. This will be followed by gentle cooling Sunday through Tuesday as an upper level trough moves across the Intermountain West with the tail end moving across the area by Tuesday night. Another ridge will build along the West Coast behind the trough during the middle to latter part of next week for more warm, dry weather. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Cumulus have developed over the mountains, but with little vertical extent. Will maintain a slight chance of a shower/tstorm over the mountains through the afternoon, but odds do favor no precip occurring. Sunshine dominates the sky across SoCal early this afternoon. There is patchy stratus mainly from Del Mar to Point Loma. Stratus will re-develop along the coast and move some 15-20 miles inland tonight and this will be the trend the next few nights. Patchy fog will be possible again near the mesas. The upper level ridge over the far SW U.S. will become displaced south into Mexico as an upper level trough dives southeast over the Intermountain West Sunday-Monday. The tail end of the upper trough will move across Socal Tue night. The result will be subtle cooling and gustier west-southwest winds along the desert mountain slopes and through the passes Monday-Tuesday afternoon/evenings. This will lead to elevated fire weather concerns then, but Red Flag conditions are not expected. There may be a period of offshore winds especially Wednesday morning per ECMWF which shows more of an offshore gradient then, but even this model doesn`t show any strong winds with the sea breeze/onshore winds becoming dominant by afternoon. After the upper trough passes on Tuesday, upper level ridging will build in from the northwest, become centered over SoCal by Thursday, then into Arizona-New Mexico by next weekend. An upper level low will form and cut off over the ocean west of the state. The atmosphere will continue dry with no rain expected with temps rising and averaging above normal for the middle to latter part of next week. && .AVIATION... 222100Z...Coast/Valleys...Except for patchy stratus along the beaches, clear skies with mostly unrestricted VIS will occur through this evening. Stratus will spread up to 20 miles inland late tonight, with onset at the coast around 07Z. BKN-OVC bases will be 800-1100 ft MSL with tops to 1300 ft MSL. Local vis below 3 miles will occur in the coastal valleys. Most areas will clear 15Z-17Z Sun. Mountains...Mostly SCT cumulus clouds at/above 7000 ft MSL will occur this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly clear with unrestricted VIS will occur through Sunday. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather is forecast through Thursday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Gregoria AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell |
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NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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