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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 282134
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
134 PM PST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty Santa Ana winds through and below passes and along the
coastal foothills will continue through early Monday. East winds
will drop off on Monday, but it will be very dry and a little
warmer. Cooler, onshore flow returns Tuesday. There is the
potential for a storm system to move across SoCal Wednesday
night. Precipitation associated with this storm could break out
as early as Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday. Dry
and warmer weather will return to wrap up the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A thin band of high clouds are moving over the region this
afternoon. Surface pressure gradients are dropping off this
morning and any upper support has shifted east, resulting in a
weakening of the Santa Ana Winds. A High Wind Warning remains in
effect until 3 PM. Winds will continue weaken this afternoon as
they turn more northeast to east, weakening furter on Monday. A
Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions portions of So Cal
through 3 AM Monday.

Temps near the coast have reached the low 70s this afternoon,
though windy low-elevation areas further inland remain stuck in
the 60s. Temps this afternoon will remain 5-10 degrees below
average for the mountains and deserts. More widespread warming
takes on Monday and Tuesday as an upper level ridge moves over and
weaker offshore flow prevails.

Latest GEFS/EPS ensemble solutions still favor midweek
precipitation, though the CMC isn`t quite on board yet. While all
ensembles and deterministic runs have trended slower bringing the
closed low across So Cal, there is still a decent spread in the
timing. Showers could begin as early as Wednesday afternoon,
though that appears to be one of the less likely scenarios. Based
on current data, the best chance of precipitation would be
Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, with a few showers
possibly lasting into Thursday afternoon. EPS mean and the EC
determinstic runs have trended upwards with precipitation amounts.
Stuck with WPC QPF which yields around 0.25-0.40" for the
coasts/valleys, which is in line with the ensemble means. Mountains
could see around 0.40-0.80" with southwest facing slopes being
favored. Deserts generally 0.15" or less. There is the potential
for higher amounts depending on how the low tracks/how much
tropical moisture it taps, and if any thunderstorms develop.

The storm system will move rapidly east on Thursday, setting up a
fair and warmer end to the week. There is a chance of a passing
system on Sunday that may deepen the marine layer with some cooling,
but for now any precip potential is small.

&&

.AVIATION...
282015Z...Clear skies with unrestricted visibility through tonight.

North to northeast winds will continue over the mountains and into
many valley and some coastal locations this afternoon, with local
surface 20-30 kts and gusts to 55 kts. These winds will produce
moderate to strong up/downdrafts and LLWS over and west of the mtns
through this afternoon, including near KONT, KSBD and KSNA. Winds
will decrease somewhat this evening, but will remain breezy through
Monday morning, with gusts 30-40 kts over the mountains and into the
foothills.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of northeast winds with gusts 20 kts possible at times early
this afternoon over the coastal waters. Otherwise, no hazardous
marine conditions are expected Monday through Friday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty northeast winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of 30 to 45 MPH
will continue this afternoon through and below the passes,
canyons, and coastal foothills. Strongest winds early this
afternoon will remain below the Cajon Pass and Santa Ana
Mountains, shifting to the San Gorgonio Pass and San Diego County
Mountains late this afternoon into Monday. Breezy conditions will
continue Monday afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Winds
combined with widespread daytime humidity of 8 to 12% and poor
overnight recovery will maintain elevated critical fire weather
conditions into Monday afternoon.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for San Diego County
     Mountains-San Diego County Valleys.

     High Wind Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Orange
     County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Gorgonio Pass Near
     Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Riverside County
     Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Orange County
     Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SS
AVIATION/MARINE...PG

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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