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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA
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000 FXUS66 KSGX 011018 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 318 AM PDT Sun Oct 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will bring another unseasonably cool day with isolated to scattered showers ending late in the day. Dry and warmer weather will begin Monday as the low pressure weakens. High pressure and increased offshore flow will boost the warming trend for above normal temperatures Wednesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Isolated showers in coastal and valley areas, and scattered showers in the hills and mountains, are continuing this morning. Isolated wind gusts over 35 mph through the mountain passes indicate that winds have decreased overall and will continue to do so this morning. The unstable air mass today underneath the core of the upper level trough will continue to support shallow convection for these isolated to scattered showers anywhere from the coast to the mountains for much of the day, ending this evening. There doesn`t seem to be sufficient instability for thunderstorms, but a few showers could be briefly heavy. Additional rainfall in the mountains could exceed 0.25 inch, but most areas will receive an additional 0.01 to 0.15 inch. Our cool and mostly cloudy environment today will produce high temperatures inland 15-25 degrees below average, so look for more low max temp records to fall, like they did yesterday. Random and intermittent clearing of clouds will gradually take place tonight into Monday as the upper low weakens and lifts out. The marine layer will try to recover, but coastal clouds appear patchy at most Tuesday, and non-existent thereafter. High pressure begins to build, but a weak remnant upper low seems to hang out over Arizona Wednesday and Thursday. With colder air over the intermountain west, an offshore pressure gradient sets up. The northerly flow aloft will assist the offshore flow. It starts weak Tuesday, but strengthens for Wednesday through Thursday. The air mass warms and the offshore flow will greatly boost temperatures west of the mountains. After max temps 15-25 degrees below normal today, we`ll approach normal Tuesday, then zoom well above normal for the rest of the week. We`re looking at widespread 90s on Thursday in the valleys and inland coastal areas, about 4-12 degrees above normal. Offshore Santa Ana wind gusts of 25-35 mph look probable in the foothills, right now looking most favorable during the nights and mornings Wednesday and Thursday. Right now the stronger winds don`t appear to reach too far into the populated lowlands if at all. There is some weakening of the high pressure and offshore flow toward the weekend that should help ease temperatures back to normal. The atmosphere seems to have checked the calendar and noticed that October is here, and better shape up and start acting like it. The season appears to be turning the page. && .AVIATION... 010925Z...Coast/Valleys...Sct -SHRA through 21Z. BKN-OVC clouds through 21Z gradually become SCT/BKN through 02Z Mon, then becoming SKC/SCT thereafter. Bases will be variable between 2000-5000 ft MSL, layered to 7000 ft MSL today. Mountains/Deserts...Areas of mountain obscuration in clouds and -SHRA through 23Z. Decreasing cloud cover tonight. Areas of W-SW winds gusting 25-40 knots on the mountain crests and the desert slopes east of San Gorgonio Pass through 20Z. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions through Thursday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MM AVIATION/MARINE...Moede |
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NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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