| LATEST RUC (RAPID UPDATE CYCLE) FORECAST |
| KNKX 0Z MAR 20, 2010 | 0 Hr | 3 Hr | 6 Hr | 9 Hr | 12 Hr |
| Lift Cond Lev (LCL) (m agl) | 821 | 779 | 700 | 438 | 430 |
| Lev Free Conv (LFC) (m agl) | 2423 | NONE | NONE | NONE | NONE |
| 0-3km CAPE(J/kg) | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) (J/kg) | 657 | 571 | 109 | 0 | 0 |
| Mixed Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) (J/kg) | 426 | 143 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| Mixed Layer CIN (MLCINH) (J/kg) | -65 O | -120 M | -172 P | -300 P | -300 P |
| 0-3km Vorticity Generation Parameter (VGP) | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 0-1km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) | 0.00 P | 0.13 P | 0.00 P | 0.00 P | 0.00 P |
| 0-3km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) | -0.12 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 0-1km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) | 0 | 95 | 20 | 6 | 15 |
| 0-3km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) | 41 | 160 | 126 | 193 | 189 |
| 0-1km Shear (kt) | 20 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| 0-3km Shear (kt) | 9 | 38 | 32 | 50 | 40 |
| Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craven Sig Severe | 1.78 | 2.30 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hail Size (In) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conv Gust (Kts) | 45 | 51 | 46 | 39 | 13 |
| Best LI (C) | -2.35 | -2.00 | -0.10 | 4.01 | 7.12 |
| WZH (1000 Ft AGL) | 4.54 | 3.35 | 2.43 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
Support For Supercells: S-strong, O-OK, M-Marginal, P-Poor
VGP - Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms
STP - Values greater than 1 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms
SCP - Values greater than 1 suggest an increasing possibility of supercells and
tornadic storms
Craven Sig Severe - Values greater than 20 suggest an increasing possibility of
sig severe storms
| LATEST RUC MODEL RUN FOR KNKX | ||||||||||
| TIME (Z) | 0200 | 0300 | 0400 | 0500 | 0600 | 0700 | 0800 | 0900 | 1000 | 1100 |
| SHOWALTER INDEX | 10.36 | 10.73 | 10.94 | 11.06 | 10.66 | 10.04 | 9.98 | 10.24 | 10.16 | 9.93 |
| LIFTED INDEX | 8.97 | 9.22 | 8.83 | 8.34 | 7.50 | 6.99 | 6.89 | 7.69 | 8.45 | 9.27 |
| SWEAT INDEX | 55.54 | 50.85 | 54.11 | 51.94 | 50.19 | 51.33 | 52.42 | 50.00 | 47.93 | 48.26 |
| K INDEX | -10.95 | -12.43 | -13.40 | -15.72 | -16.11 | -14.05 | -12.84 | -12.41 | -10.78 | -8.99 |
| TOTALS TOTAL INDEX | 29.67 | 29.08 | 28.79 | 28.46 | 29.47 | 30.85 | 31.60 | 31.46 | 31.43 | 31.53 |
| LCL HEIGHT (Ft) | 2918 | 2330 | 2125 | 2002 | 1713 | 1617 | 1602 | 1587 | 1627 | 1719 |
| LCL PRESSURE | 922.86 | 951.92 | 962.79 | 969.52 | 986.06 | 991.82 | 992.76 | 993.64 | 991.25 | 985.73 |
| LCL TEMP (in C) | 10.3 | 11.23 | 11.5 | 11.52 | 11.14 | 10.57 | 9.92 | 9.09 | 8.33 | 7.49 |
| PRECIP WATER (in) | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| CAPE | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CINS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EQ LEVEL (Ft) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LFC (Ft) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BULK RICHARDSON | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| STORM REL HEL (m/s) | 65.40 | 73.00 | 77.20 | 57.40 | 42.80 | 37.60 | 28.40 | 11.40 | -6.90 | -6.50 |
| STORM MOTION | 22 at 22 | 21 at 22 | 19 at 22 | 18 at 22 | 13 at 25 | 12 at 26 | 11 at 26 | 9 at 25 | 7 at 25 | 2 at 26 |
| ENERGY HELICITY(EHI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0 | -0 |
| 1 KM SHEAR | 16 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 12 |
| 3 KM SHEAR | 22 | 23 | 22 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 12 |
| 6 KM SHEAR | 44 | 40 | 36 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 30 |
| UP VERT VELOCITY (m/s) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WBZ (Ft) | 6712 | 7255 | 7778 | 7996 | 8126 | 8484 | 8631 | 8530 | 8879 | 9315 |
| CRAVEN SIG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SCP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0 | -0 |
| LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING REPORT |
| Station: KNKX Date: 0000Z 20 MAR 10 | ||
| 1000-500 Mb Thickness (Ft) | 18381.12 | |
| Freezing Level (Ft) | 12078 | |
| Wet Bulb Zero (Ft) | 7068 | BEST FOR LARGE HAIL |
| Precipitable Water (Inches) | 0.38 | |
| Sfc-500 Mean Rel Humidity (%) | 17 | |
| 700-500 Lapse Rate (C/km) | 7.16 | |
| ThetaE Index (C/km) | 8.47 | |
| Lifted Index (C) | 8.68 | STABLE ATMOSPHERE |
| Showalter Index (C) | 8.97 | NO THUNDERSTORMS |
| Total Totals Index | 34.4 | NO CONVECTION LIKELY |
| K Index | -10.1 | NO THUNDERSTORMS |
| Sweat Index | 67.77 | NO SEVERE WEATHER |
| Energy Index | 1.95 | NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED |
| CAPE (B+) (J/Kg) | 32.12 | |
| NCAPE (B+) (J/Kg) | NA | |
| Max Up Vert Vel (m/s) | 8.01 | |
| CIN (B-) (J/Kg) | 50481.62 | |
| CAP Strength (C) | 9.83 | STRONG CAP |
| Lift Cond Lev (LCL) (Ft) | 7734.88 | |
| Lev Free Conv (LFC) (Ft) | -9999 | |
| Equalibrium Lev (EL) (Ft) | -9999 | |
| Storm Direction | 355.2 at 18.6 knts | |
| Shear (0-3Km) (10-3/s) | 3.9 | |
| Storm Rel Helicity (0-3Km) | 42.6 | NONE TO VERY WEAK HELICAL FLOW |
| Storm Rel Vorticity (0-3Km) | 2.4 | |
| Energy-Hel Index | 0 | SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES UNLIKELY |
| BULK Richardson | 0.91 | INSUFFICIENT SHEAR AND/OR CAPE VALUES |
| BULK Shear (m/s) | 35.24 | |
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ESPERANZA WEATHER CENTER
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