San Diego Forecast Discussion
017
FXUS66 KSGX 251919
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1219 PM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Unusually warm temperatures continue today, with highs ranging
from 8 to 12 degrees above average. A gradual cooling trend will
follow for Sunday through Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing temperatures
around 5 degrees above average for midweek. The upper level ridge
moves back west towards Las Vegas and restrengthens in the latter
half of the week. There is increasing confidence that this setup
could provide the hottest temperatures of the Summer thus far.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
The stubborn subtropical ridge remains anchored over the eastern
Four Corners this afternoon. The influence of this feature continues
to be the headline for the forecast, as above normal temperatures
are expected to persist into next week. The ridge has been very
gradually nudging east over the last day or so, and will continue to
do so through early next week. While it will remain quite hot, a
very subtle cooling trend continues into Tuesday, with high
temperatures falling about a degree each day. However, for today,
high temperatures remain about 10 degrees above normal, topping out
in the upper 90s to low 100s for the inland valleys, upper 80s and
low 90s for the western valleys, and 105-117 degrees in the deserts.
The weak easterly flow aloft with the ridge setup is also keeping
moisture slightly elevated, leading to the continually mild
nighttime temperatures. The cumulative combination of the high
temperatures and warm nights keeps HeatRisk elevated despite subtle
cooling compared to a few days ago, with widespread moderate (level
2/4) HeatRisk in and west of the mountains, with major (level 3/4)
HeatRisk in the deserts. As the ridge slowly nudges eastward and the
gradual cooling trend ensues into Tuesday, HeatRisk follows suit,
with slight improvements each day. The Extreme Heat Warning (for the
deserts, Inland Empire, and San Diego County mountains) and Heat
Advisory (everywhere else) remains in effect through 8 PM Monday
evening.
As the ridge begins to nudge eastward through the next few days,
this opens the door for some monsoonal influences to sneak in. While
the subsidence will not be as strong, PWATs aren`t overly
impressive. The general expectation is for afternoon cumulus
development over the mountains for Sunday-Tuesday. PoPs continue to
be quite meager with Sunday having the best "shot" at seeing any
showers over the mountains (~5% or less).
Tuesday into the end of next week...
With the upper ridge displaced some towards the front range of the
Rockies and the southwestern Great Plains on Tuesday/Wednesday, high
temperatures will be moderated compared to what we`re expecting this
weekend, but will still run about 5 degrees above normal. Even
worse, Tues/Wed will be the "coolest" days of the week, as ensemble
clusters all agree that the ridge will slowly migrate back west
through the Desert Southwest and strengthen in the latter half of
the week. The ridge looks to become centered over Las Vegas by
Saturday, with some ensemble members taking the strength up to 600dm
at 500mb. This setup could very well bring the hottest afternoon
temperatures of the Summer so far, with some daytime temperature
records potentially being challenged. Palm Springs currently has a
20-30% chance of seeing highs >120 degrees next Saturday, with the
Inland Empire having about a 20% chance of seeing highs >110
degrees. Additional heat headlines are looking increasingly likely
for the second half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
251800Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds have cleared out to the coast
with a few clouds sticking around at 1,500ft MSL. VFR conditions are
expected until 03-05Z Sunday when low clouds are expected to move
back on shore. Low cloud bases will be 1000-1500ft MSL with a tempo
group for cloud bases at 800ft MSL at CRQ. Vis restrictions will be
possible where clouds intersect terrain. Low clouds clear 16-18Z
Sunday.
Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period
with cumulus building over the mountain this afternoon AOA 20k ft
MSL.
&&
.MARINE...
Calm conditions over the weekend with waves 2 to 4 feet and
afternoon wind gusts near 15 kts or less through Monday. Waves
increase in the outer waters mid to late week with waves expected
around 5 to 7 feet.
&&
.BEACHES...
A 2 foot southerly swell with 12 second periods will continue to
bring elevated surf 4-6 feet with sets to 7 feet to beaches through
this evening. Sunday, a long-period southwesterly swell will replace
the current swell, keeping surf around 3-5 feet with sets to 6 feet
through Sunday evening. Monday and Tuesday, the southerly swell will
increase to 3 feet with a period 17 seconds, elevating surf once
again to 4-6 feet with sets to 7 feet. Highest surf is expected
along south-facing beaches. High rip current risk will last through
the upcoming week.
In addition to elevated surf, tides are expected to increase to a
height of 6.0 to 6.5 feet MLLW by Sunday and continue at that height
through most of the week. The combination of surf and tides will
result in minor coastal flooding during high tides.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for Orange
County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Orange County Coastal
Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-
San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Coastal
Areas-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and
Foothills.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for Apple and Lucerne
Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Bernardino and Riverside
County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Deserts-
San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Munyan
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Villafane
NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion
