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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Dec 11 2024 7:38 pm

Day 1

D4	Saturday Dec 14 2024 - Sunday Dec 15 2024	D7	Tuesday Dec 17 2024 - Wednesday Dec 18 2024
D5	Sunday Dec 15 2024 - Monday Dec 16 2024	D8	Wednesday Dec 18 2024 - Thursday Dec 19 2024
D6	Monday Dec 16 2024 - Tuesday Dec 17 2024	(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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